Both Vul
IMPs
Dealer: West
Lead: 
Q
taryk Q 3 A 9 4 Q 10 9 8 5 8 4 3 |
||
| fifee 6 4 K J 10 8 5 K J 7 K J 7 |
![[W - E]](http://gee.aaronhaspel.com/files/2012/10/t.gif) |
jimm A K 10 8 7 6 3 6 3 A Q 5 2 |
| Maestro J 9 7 5 2 Q 2 A 4 2 10 9 6 |
| West 1 3 4 |
North Pass Pass Pass |
East 2 3 Pass |
South Pass Pass Pass |
Our guest columnist, LorNic, writes:
I was kibitzing Gee the other day when this rather mundane hand came up. The auction and final contract appeared normal and, seeing all four hands, it looked like the hand would come down to a diamond guess for an overtrick. The opening lead was the SQ, a typical stab lead made by less than expert players. (From North it looks like passive defense won’t defeat this contract, which turns out to be true. I think the SQ is a pretty good lead on the auction. But then I’m less than expert myself. —Ed.) But while the layout was perfect for the lead, there would be no reason for declarer to later take the “marked” finesse. Until I saw what happened on the next trick. Declarer wins the ace in dummy, leads a heart and our hero smoothly drops the queen.
Wow! What inspired this play? Look at its effect on declarer. Suddenly, with two apparent trump losers (assuming North has A9xx), the contract depends, she thinks, on the diamond guess. She covers the queen; North wins the ace and returns a low spade. Now declarer sees an opportunity. By taking the “marked” finesse for the SJ she can get one pitch on the spade, another on the long club, and avoid the diamond guess. So, not unreasonably, she inserts the ten.
Gee wins the SJ and needs only to return a spade, promoting North’s trump 9, to complete his brilliancy. (Technically he ought to cash the DA first but even that isn’t necessary.) He thinks matters over and returns a heart. The best laid plans of mice and men…
Gee’s play was certainly brilliant. I’m not so sure a spade play is right here. If North has the 8 of hearts instead of the 9, then the right play is a low diamond.
I can’t agree with Justin. If you play partner for the heart 9 then a spade is certain to beat the contract. If you play partner for the DQ then a low diamond lead gives you a 50% chance to beat the contract. It has to be right to play partner for less when that less is enough to give you a certain beat. Her line also indicates that she thinks she has two trump losers, i.e., that she’s missing the heart 9.
Aaron, I think that analysis is faulty. For starters, partner could have the KING of diamonds. Second, you surely have better than 50% if partner has the queen of diamonds. From a technical standpoint, west would assume the queen of spades lead was because everything else was unattractive, and it is certainly less attractive to lead from an ace. Third, who would play G to be underleading the ace of diamonds? Fourth, it is much less likely partner has the heart 9 than the diamond queen or king. If partner has neither, he doesn’t have either the queen or king (or declarer has ten tricks even with a bad heart break without the spade finesse). So if declarer does have the heart 9, he is marked with a diamond honor. If he doesn’t have the heart 9, he could have either one of those anyway. It is 17% partner has the heart 9 (1 out of 6 hearts out). If he does you still have a 75% minimum (in the real world) chance of beating it with a diamond (as i stated he HAS to have King or Queen if he has heart 9 else west wouldnt finesse the spade). If he doesn’t have the heart 9 (83%) he could still have diamond king or queen. Add that to the other chance, and a diamond is the right play I think.
Assume a sentient declarer. Why would she finesse the spade? Only one reason: her trumps aren’t solid. Otherwise she has 2 spades, 4 trump and 4 clubs, for ten tricks. She finesses because she expects two trump losers. Justin’s assertions about percentages are moot (also wrong, but that’s incidental). Partner must hold the heart 9, and a spade return is mandated.
Perhaps this charming article should be retitled ‘The Invisible Curse of England’…The play of the HQ was neither brilliance nor idiocy; it was a simple mismouse achieved from clicking the card adjacent to the one intended, and the proof was the latter return of that very card, the H2, which clearly advertised — since the exact layout of the spade suit was known — an insouciant incognizance of the very existence of the H9. Either that, or both heart plays were mismice, and what are those odds?