The Zero Percent Bid

None Vul
IMPs
Lead: 4

	wildcats Q J 8 4 K J 10 3 8 5 3 9 3
martygx A 9 7 5 9 5 2 K J 9 10 6 4		fun1 10 6 2 7 Q 4 2 A K Q 7 5 2
	Maestro K 3 A Q 8 6 4 A 10 7 6 J 8

West Dbl 4 Dbl

North Pass 2 Pass Pass

East 1 3 Pass Pass

South 1 3 4 Pass

 

The zero percent play, as devotees of this column know, is all too common. These days I can barely stifle a yawn when I see one. The zero percent bid is far more unusual; and today we have an exquisite example.

Gee sits South. The auction proceeds normally at first. East’s club opener is perhaps a little light, but Gee’s heart overcall, West’s negative double, and North’s heart raise are all straight out of the book. (N/S often make 4-card overcalls at the 1-level, so a raise to 3, especially with no singleton, is out of the question.)

East competes to 3C with his stiff heart and excellent suit. It’s unlikely to be down more than 1, and it may induce N/S to bid 3h, which Gee promptly does. West should probably pass. But he has a decent hand for his double, and 3H may go down but is not a lock to, since E/W have at least 9 clubs and either North or South figures to be stiff. So he bids 4C, converting a plus to a minus.

Until Gee’s turn to bid arrives. The worst conceivable outcome in 4C is -130. The possible outcomes in 4HX — a double is certain on the auction — are:
Down 1: -100
Down 2: -300
Down 3: -500

The best possible outcome in 4HX matches the worst possible outcome in 4C. Why do I exclude 4H making, you ask? There is no conceivable North hand, given the opposing bidding, on which 4H makes. The magic dummy is QJxxx Kxxx Kx xx. In this scenario we must assume a) North did not raise to game over West’s 4C bid; b) East has 11 or 12 points for his opener and free bid (OK, this part turns out to be true); c) West has 6 or 7 points, counting loose queens and jacks, for his negative double and club raise; d) the moon is in the seventh house; and e) Jupiter aligns with Mars. On the other hand, North could easily hold Jxxx Kxx Jxxx Kx, in which case N/S are staring at a probable -500.

And sure, Gee goes down 2 for -8 IMPs. But readers, you should thank him, for his loss, as ever, is our gain.